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Remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C from the start of 2026 (50% likelihood)

How much more carbon dioxide could be emitted from the start of 2026 while keeping a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, as estimated by Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025. The likelihood reflects only uncertainty in how much warming each tonne of carbon dioxide causes. The estimate assumes deep cuts in other greenhouse gases and aerosols; IGCC states it could be around 200 billion tonnes higher or lower depending on how far those cuts go.

Latest value

130Gt CO₂

World, 1 January 2026. Version IGCC-2025a.

As published

“Note that the RCB estimate of 130 GtCO₂ (50 % likelihood) would be exhausted in a little more than 3 years if global CO₂ emissions remain at 2025 levels (42 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹, from Table 1 with additional accounting for cement carbonation sink).”

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025, Sect. 9, p. 3910 (with Table 8 on the same page). Checked word for word against the stored copy of the document every time the data is rebuilt.

Where it comes from

Producer
Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium, led by the University of Leeds · Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025
Version
IGCC-2025a
File
https://zenodo.org/api/records/21494229/files/ClimateIndicator/data-IGCC-2025a.zip/content
Fetched
2026-10-04 (automatically), 1,495,354 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 04658ff91053808aced03f65dc977311668aec1610ec83bec72fff303dcbcbcd
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
Cite the producer
Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R. M., Atkinson, C., Betts, R. A., Bombelli, A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Claxton, H. E., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T. L., Domingues, C. M., Gasser, T., Gregory, C. H., Hoesly, R. M., Huppmann, D., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Karwat, A., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Kovilakam, M. V. M., Krummel, P. B., Lan, X., Lamarque, J.-F., Liné, A., Martín-Míguez, B., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Mussak, P., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, S. J., Taha, G., Tassone, C., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Zecchetto, M., Zhong, J., Zhang, X.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026. Smith, C., Walsh, T., Gillett, N., Hauser, M., Krummel, P., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Mühle, J., Palmer, M., Ribes, A., Schumacher, D., Seneviratne, S., Slangen, A., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Forster, P. (2026). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 (Version IGCC-2025a) [Computer software]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.21494229
Producer
Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium, led by the University of Leeds · Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025
Version
IGCC-2025a
File
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/3889/2026/essd-18-3889-2026.pdf
Fetched
2026-10-04 (automatically), 9,736,703 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 795eb30a2ed5defdffb78499b0c3eac2314eac3a4ab5d7e9f093bef336acafebETag "9491ff-653ed6ee5a83f" · Last-Modified Wed, 10 Jun 2026 22:04:53 GMT
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
Cite the producer
Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R. M., Atkinson, C., Betts, R. A., Bombelli, A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Claxton, H. E., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T. L., Domingues, C. M., Gasser, T., Gregory, C. H., Hoesly, R. M., Huppmann, D., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Karwat, A., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Kovilakam, M. V. M., Krummel, P. B., Lan, X., Lamarque, J.-F., Liné, A., Martín-Míguez, B., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Mussak, P., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, S. J., Taha, G., Tassone, C., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Zecchetto, M., Zhong, J., Zhang, X.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026. Smith, C., Walsh, T., Gillett, N., Hauser, M., Krummel, P., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Mühle, J., Palmer, M., Ribes, A., Schumacher, D., Seneviratne, S., Slangen, A., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Forster, P. (2026). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 (Version IGCC-2025a) [Computer software]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.21494229
Producer
Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium, led by the University of Leeds · Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025
Version
IGCC-2025a
File
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/carbon_budget/budget_normal_magicc_True_fair_False_esf_7.1pm26.7_likeli_0.6827_nonCO2pc50.0_GtCO2_permaf_False_zecsd_0.0_asym_False_hdT_1.24NonlinNonCO2_all_None_recEm213.csv
Fetched
2026-10-04 (automatically), 2,580 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 f52b1e97cfbd1a6b33b2fd94baa18125b08427e5ba828469fd52919efa9fcd1dETag W/"5bbbea335b5efffcb85b0d2b64be7d9a74f6d84bbe58d03d4e57a1b79b623031"
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
Cite the producer
Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R. M., Atkinson, C., Betts, R. A., Bombelli, A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Claxton, H. E., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T. L., Domingues, C. M., Gasser, T., Gregory, C. H., Hoesly, R. M., Huppmann, D., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Karwat, A., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Kovilakam, M. V. M., Krummel, P. B., Lan, X., Lamarque, J.-F., Liné, A., Martín-Míguez, B., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Mussak, P., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, S. J., Taha, G., Tassone, C., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Zecchetto, M., Zhong, J., Zhang, X.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026. Smith, C., Walsh, T., Gillett, N., Hauser, M., Krummel, P., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Mühle, J., Palmer, M., Ribes, A., Schumacher, D., Seneviratne, S., Slangen, A., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Forster, P. (2026). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 (Version IGCC-2025a) [Computer software]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.21494229

What was done to it

  1. Quoted from Sect. 9, p. 3910 (with Table 8 on the same page) of Forster et al. (2026), Earth Syst. Sci. Data 18. The quote was found in the text of page 22 of the PDF snapshot (sha256 795eb30a2ed5…) before publishing, and so was the Table 8 caption that dates the budgets: 'Estimates are expressed relative to the start of 2026.'

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py · code sha256 5a1f11a945b695d3… · inputs 04658ff91053… 795eb30a2ed5… f52b1e97cfbd…

  2. Value: "130 GtCO₂ (50 % likelihood)" is published as 130 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from the start of 2026, as Table 8 on the same page dates it.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py · code sha256 5a1f11a945b695d3… · inputs 04658ff91053… 795eb30a2ed5… f52b1e97cfbd…

  3. Checked that each file read (budget_normal_magicc_True_fair_False_esf_7.1pm26.7_likeli_0.6827_nonCO2pc50.0_GtCO2_permaf_False_zecsd_0.0_asym_False_hdT_1.24NonlinNonCO2_all_None_recEm213.csv) is byte-identical to the same path inside the IGCC-2025a release zip deposited on Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.21494229, sha256 04658ff91053…).

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py · code sha256 5a1f11a945b695d3… · inputs 04658ff91053… 795eb30a2ed5… f52b1e97cfbd…

  4. Cross-check: the release's budget file with the Table 8 assumptions (budget_normal_magicc_True_fair_False_esf_7.1pm26.7_likeli_0.6827_nonCO2pc50.0_GtCO2_permaf_False_zecsd_0.0_asym_False_hdT_1.24NonlinNonCO2_all_None_recEm213.csv) gives 134.22 GtCO₂ for 1.5 °C at 50% likelihood. The paper rounds to the nearest 10 GtCO₂; the build stops if the file value is more than 5 GtCO₂ from the quoted 130. Difference: 4.22 GtCO₂.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py · code sha256 5a1f11a945b695d3… · inputs 04658ff91053… 795eb30a2ed5… f52b1e97cfbd…

What it covers

Geography
World
Land use, land-use change and forestry
included
Basis
Carbon dioxide budget from the start of 2026 (1 January 2026) for 1.5 °C above 1850–1900, 50% likelihood considering only uncertainty in the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE); rounded by IGCC to the nearest 10 GtCO₂. Non-CO₂ warming from the AR6 scenarios that reach net zero CO₂, modelled with MAGICC; starts from 1.24 °C of human-induced warming over 2016–2025. It counts all net carbon dioxide from human activity (IGCC: "the total amount of CO₂ that can ever be emitted"), which IGCC compares with 2025 emissions of 42 GtCO₂ a year from its Table 1, fossil and land-use change together, international aviation and shipping included.
Unit
billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO₂)