Projected warming in 2100 under current policies and pledges (Climate Action Tracker)

Latest value

2.6°C

Global mean, 2100 (projection). Version November 2025.

Notes on individual values

• CAT's description of the scenario (Info sheet): The Policies & action projection represents real world action based on current policies. It tells us: • where emissions are actually heading • whether governments are delivering on their pledges • whether governments are overachieving their (often weak) targets, and how much these targets could be strengthened. This is the row CAT labels Combined; the sheet also gives High and Low variants, which the thermometer does not show.
• CAT's description of the scenario (Info sheet): The 2030 & 2035 targets only projection represents the impact should all governments meet both their 2030 targets and the 2035 targets formally submitted to the UN as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
• CAT's description of the scenario (Info sheet): The Pledges & targets projection represents the impact should governments achieve all submitted and binding targets they have formally submitted to the UN. More specifically, this scenario: • includes all 2030 NDC targets • includes all 2035 NDC targets (once governments submit them) • includes all net zero and other longer-term targets contained in submitted LTSs (Long Term Strategies) • it excludes any announcements or proposals that haven't been formally submitted to the UN
• CAT's description of the scenario (Info sheet): The Optimistic scenario projection represents the best case scenario based on each government each meeting all its climate target announcements. This includes all the pledges and targets submitted to the UN, and all other announcements and proposals a government - or its representatives have made.

Where it comes from

Producer

Climate Action Tracker (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute) · Climate Action Tracker: the CAT Thermometer, November 2025 (COP30 global update)

Version

November 2025

File

https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1349/CAT_2025-11_PublicData_GlobalTemperatureEstimates_COP30.xlsx

Fetched

2026-10-04 (automatically), 1,165,847 bytes

Fingerprint

sha256 44044cda8f851f77d6ca0eeb0750848fb6ee32bab50939df2cc2363e63a8c6c1ETag "c95fceea86569263ba2e163314ae8999b6605470" · Last-Modified Thu, 13 Nov 2025 00:03:30 GMT

Copies

No Wayback copy recorded yet.

Cite the producer

Climate Action Tracker (2025). The CAT Thermometer. November 2025. Available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/

What was done to it

1. Read the CAT Thermometer sheet of CAT_2025-11_PublicData_GlobalTemperatureEstimates_COP30.xlsx. The Info sheet gives the Date Published, 13 November 2025; the vintage is that month, as CAT labels the update.

   Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cat_thermometer.py · code sha256 94523270ef295871… · inputs 44044cda8f85…

2. Kept the four rows the sheet prints in bold, which it says are the values used in the CAT Thermometer: Policies & action (Combined), 2030 & 2035 Targets only, Pledges & targets, and Optimistic scenario (net-zero pledges). Not published: the High and Low variants of Policies & action, the 2030 targets only row and an unlabelled row, none of which is in bold.

   Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cat_thermometer.py · code sha256 94523270ef295871… · inputs 44044cda8f85…

3. Each value is the sheet's cell unchanged: Median as the value, Lower bound and Upper bound as the range. Every cell was checked to be displayed with one decimal and to store no more digits than it displays, because CAT asks that only the displayed rounded values be reproduced. Nothing was computed.

   Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cat_thermometer.py · code sha256 94523270ef295871… · inputs 44044cda8f85…