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Human-induced warming in 2025 (IGCC 2025)

How much of the global surface warming in 2025 was caused by human activity, relative to the 1850–1900 average, with the likely range, as assessed by Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025. IGCC uses the trend-based single-year definition of the IPCC 1.5 °C report (SR1.5), which it prioritises where it differs from the annual mean because it reduces the effect of year-to-year natural variability.

Latest value

1.37°C

Global mean, 2025. Version IGCC-2025a.

As published

“The single year average human-induced warming is assessed to be 1.37 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2025 relative to 1850–1900.”

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025, Sect. 8.1, p. 3906 (also the abstract and Table 6). Checked word for word against the stored copy of the document every time the data is rebuilt.

Where it comes from

Producer
Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium, led by the University of Leeds · Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025
Version
IGCC-2025a
File
https://zenodo.org/api/records/21494229/files/ClimateIndicator/data-IGCC-2025a.zip/content
Fetched
2026-10-04 (automatically), 1,495,354 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 04658ff91053808aced03f65dc977311668aec1610ec83bec72fff303dcbcbcd
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
Cite the producer
Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R. M., Atkinson, C., Betts, R. A., Bombelli, A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Claxton, H. E., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T. L., Domingues, C. M., Gasser, T., Gregory, C. H., Hoesly, R. M., Huppmann, D., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Karwat, A., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Kovilakam, M. V. M., Krummel, P. B., Lan, X., Lamarque, J.-F., Liné, A., Martín-Míguez, B., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Mussak, P., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, S. J., Taha, G., Tassone, C., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Zecchetto, M., Zhong, J., Zhang, X.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026. Smith, C., Walsh, T., Gillett, N., Hauser, M., Krummel, P., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Mühle, J., Palmer, M., Ribes, A., Schumacher, D., Seneviratne, S., Slangen, A., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Forster, P. (2026). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 (Version IGCC-2025a) [Computer software]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.21494229
Producer
Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium, led by the University of Leeds · Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025
Version
IGCC-2025a
File
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/3889/2026/essd-18-3889-2026.pdf
Fetched
2026-10-04 (automatically), 9,736,703 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 795eb30a2ed5defdffb78499b0c3eac2314eac3a4ab5d7e9f093bef336acafebETag "9491ff-653ed6ee5a83f" · Last-Modified Wed, 10 Jun 2026 22:04:53 GMT
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
Cite the producer
Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R. M., Atkinson, C., Betts, R. A., Bombelli, A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Claxton, H. E., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T. L., Domingues, C. M., Gasser, T., Gregory, C. H., Hoesly, R. M., Huppmann, D., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Karwat, A., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Kovilakam, M. V. M., Krummel, P. B., Lan, X., Lamarque, J.-F., Liné, A., Martín-Míguez, B., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Mussak, P., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, S. J., Taha, G., Tassone, C., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Zecchetto, M., Zhong, J., Zhang, X.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026. Smith, C., Walsh, T., Gillett, N., Hauser, M., Krummel, P., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Mühle, J., Palmer, M., Ribes, A., Schumacher, D., Seneviratne, S., Slangen, A., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Forster, P. (2026). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 (Version IGCC-2025a) [Computer software]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.21494229
Producer
Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium, led by the University of Leeds · Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025
Version
IGCC-2025a
File
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Assessment-Update-2025_GMST_headlines.csv
Fetched
2026-10-04 (automatically), 683 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 d419c3f7d513b42052f5635454853610739d8b5f1749f55b5df03862dfe28879ETag W/"9a20ce76744835485a38171386d4a8dfd0b83afea59b1c94a596a809ea375aee"
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
Cite the producer
Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R. M., Atkinson, C., Betts, R. A., Bombelli, A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Claxton, H. E., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T. L., Domingues, C. M., Gasser, T., Gregory, C. H., Hoesly, R. M., Huppmann, D., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Karwat, A., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Kovilakam, M. V. M., Krummel, P. B., Lan, X., Lamarque, J.-F., Liné, A., Martín-Míguez, B., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Mussak, P., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, S. J., Taha, G., Tassone, C., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Zecchetto, M., Zhong, J., Zhang, X.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026. Smith, C., Walsh, T., Gillett, N., Hauser, M., Krummel, P., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Mühle, J., Palmer, M., Ribes, A., Schumacher, D., Seneviratne, S., Slangen, A., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Forster, P. (2026). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 (Version IGCC-2025a) [Computer software]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.21494229

What was done to it

  1. Quoted from Sect. 8.1, p. 3906 (also the abstract and Table 6) of Forster et al. (2026), Earth Syst. Sci. Data 18. The quote was found in the text of page 18 of the PDF snapshot (sha256 795eb30a2ed5…) before publishing, and so was IGCC's statement on page 17 of which single-year definition it uses: 'where they differ we prioritise the SR1.5 trend-based definition' (rather than the annual mean).

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py · code sha256 5a1f11a945b695d3… · inputs 04658ff91053… 795eb30a2ed5… d419c3f7d513…

  2. Value: "1.37 [1.1 to 1.7] °C" is published as 1.37 °C for 2025 with the likely range 1.1 to 1.7 °C, relative to 1850–1900.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py · code sha256 5a1f11a945b695d3… · inputs 04658ff91053… 795eb30a2ed5… d419c3f7d513…

  3. Checked that each file read (Assessment-Update-2025_GMST_headlines.csv) is byte-identical to the same path inside the IGCC-2025a release zip deposited on Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.21494229, sha256 04658ff91053…).

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py · code sha256 5a1f11a945b695d3… · inputs 04658ff91053… 795eb30a2ed5… d419c3f7d513…

  4. Cross-check: the release's own 'SR15 definition' row for 2025 in Assessment-Update-2025_GMST_headlines.csv gives 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles 1.1, 1.37 and 1.7 °C, the same as the quoted value and range; the build stops if they differ. (The annual-mean row for 2025 gives 1.38 °C; that definition is published as warming.igcc-2025.human-induced.)

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py · code sha256 5a1f11a945b695d3… · inputs 04658ff91053… 795eb30a2ed5… d419c3f7d513…

What it covers

Geography
Global mean
Baseline
1850–1900
Basis
Global mean surface temperature (GMST); warming attributed to all human influences (greenhouse gases, aerosols and other human forcings) in the single year 2025, SR1.5 trend-based definition. IGCC's multi-method assessment of three attribution methods: best estimate to 0.01 °C, likely range to 0.1 °C.
Unit
degrees Celsius (°C)